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Theory:

     “You’ll let me go?” He held the lighter towards her.
 
     “Yes, but only if you’ll do something for me.”
 
     “Anything you say.”
 
     “Before we left for London, I promised my husband to take my jewels to our bank; but I left them here in the safe. I want to wear them to a party tonight, so I came down to get them, but…”
 
     Horace smiled. “You’ve forgotten the numbers to open the safe, haven’t you?”
 
     “Yes,” replied the young lady.
Explanation:
 
As previously stated, Horace believed his behaviour and burglary convictions had convinced the woman. He assumed she was impressed by his burglary ethics of stealing for a good reason and only from wealthy people.
 
When he thought so, he asked her if she would let Horace leave the house while holding the lighter in her hand. She initially said 'yes', but only on the condition that Horace be doing something for her in exchange. Horace had not anticipated it, but his circumstances forced him to comply with her request. In exchange for her assistance, he promised to do anything.
 
The young lady began to describe her situation to Horace. She stated that before leaving for London, she promised her husband that she would place all of the jewellery in the bank, but instead kept it in the grange's safe. Unfortunately, she had to leave for a party right away. Horace then cut her off in the middle of her sentence, guessing that she had forgotten the locker code, to which she said 'yes'.
 
The young woman's behaviour was dubious from the beginning.
 
a. No homeowner can stand seeing a robber inside her home.
 
b. The young woman's claim that she forgot the locker code did not appear to be credible, as any house owner who handles so much value in a safe and forgets the locker code cannot be trusted.
Reference:
National Council of Educational Research and Training (2008). Honeydew. A Question of Trust - Victor Canning (pp 20-24). Published at the Publication Division by the Secretary, National Council of Educational Research and Training, Sri Aurobindo Marg, New Delhi.